Memory shortage: SK Hynix says it lasts to 2030, prices stay high

SK Hynix, one of the biggest makers of RAM and flash memory, has said the component shortage won't be resolved before 2030. That is the core of the story: the wait for cheaper phones and laptops could run for years.

The company points to demand from artificial intelligence as the main driver. Data centres, AI models and increasingly powerful devices all need more memory, and the industry can't keep pace. Building new production plants takes years, and the most advanced manufacturing processes add complexity.

So the shortage isn't framed as a short dip. It's described as lasting until the end of the decade.

Apple is part of a group of 14 large tech companies that have signed priority contracts with SK Hynix for preferential supply in 2027 and 2028, according to 9to5Mac. Together those 14 firms will buy more than half of the Korean giant's output.

The catch is what the deals cover. They guarantee priority in supply, not protection from price rises. SK Hynix confirmed the agreements include a mechanism that reflects market conditions within a price range agreed with customers.

In plain terms, prices can still go up and Apple, along with the others, will have to absorb that. Apple had said in June it was doing its best to limit increases without succeeding.

Memory isn't the only part under strain. According to Nikkei Asia, printed circuit boards could become the next bottleneck.

Modern boards have become highly specialised components, with more layers and ever higher bandwidth requirements. That narrows the number of manufacturers able to build them and stretches delivery times.

For anyone following component supply, this adds a second pressure point beyond RAM and flash. The article doesn't say how much boards could add to device prices or when that would show up.

The memory crunch has already been pushing smartphone prices up, and Samsung has been cutting production to adapt to the situation.

That context matters if you're weighing a purchase. The article states plainly that device makers have no choice but to pass at least part of these costs on to end customers.

The prospect of falling prices in the short term is described as simply unrealistic. And when increases last for years and become the new normal, the piece asks how likely it is that they then magically come back down.

If you put off a new phone or laptop hoping memory prices would fall, the stated timeline runs to 2030. That's the practical takeaway for a buyer.

The article's own conclusion is blunt: waiting for a short-term decline doesn't match the picture SK Hynix describes. It doesn't offer a recommended buying window or predict specific price levels.

What remains open is how much of the cost each brand passes on, and when. Those figures aren't in the source, so I'm not putting numbers on them.